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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.

That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."