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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.